AFL · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v GWS GIANTS
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 14
WB to win, 67% chance
WB 67%33% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 81
HIT Actual margin 81 · 67.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Williams | WR | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 4.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 5.4 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 45% | 30% | 18% | 6.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 4.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 13% | 11.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 11% | 3.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 49% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 6.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 4.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 6.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 9.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 7.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 7.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 9.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 6.8 | - | - | 91% | 81% | 68% | 52% | 38% | 8.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 6.1 | - | - | 86% | 73% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 13.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 6.1 | - | - | 86% | 73% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 7.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 68% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 10.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 13.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 5.2 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 9.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 6.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 8.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WL | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 7.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WR | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFR | 2.1 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 2.0 | - | - | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |