AFL · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v GWS GIANTS
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 14
WB to win, 67% chance
WB 67%33% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 81
HIT Actual margin 81 · 67.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 5.1 | - | - | 88% | 75% | 58% | 40% | 26% | 3.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 5.0 | - | - | 88% | 74% | 57% | 39% | 24% | 6.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 4.7 | - | - | 85% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 4.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 3.5 | - | - | 69% | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 5.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 51% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 2.4 | - | - | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 2.3 | - | - | 41% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 1.9 | - | - | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 4.8 | - | - | 86% | 71% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 2.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 4.7 | - | - | 85% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 20% | 4.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFR | 4.0 | - | - | 76% | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 4.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WR | 3.7 | - | - | 71% | 50% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 2.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 3.3 | - | - | 63% | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WL | 3.0 | - | - | 58% | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 3.0 | - | - | 59% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 2.2 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |