AFL · ROUND 10 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne
Sat 16 May 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 18
ADE to win, 74% chance
ADE 74%26% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 68
HIT Actual margin 68 · 49.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 24.9 | 21.0 to 28.7 | 15.3 to 34.4 | 96% | 80% | 49% | 19% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 24.6 | 20.8 to 28.4 | 15.2 to 34.1 | 95% | 79% | 47% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 23.8 | 20.1 to 27.5 | 14.5 to 33.1 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 23.6 | 19.8 to 27.3 | 14.3 to 32.8 | 93% | 74% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 23.2 | 19.5 to 26.9 | 14.0 to 32.4 | 93% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| James Peatling | R | 21.0 | 17.5 to 24.5 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 87% | 57% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.6 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.1 to 28.1 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Josh Rachele | RR | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.5 to 27.1 | 77% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.0 to 26.4 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.3 to 25.3 | 68% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | HFFR | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.2 to 23.6 | 58% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.0 | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 23.0 | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.5 | 50% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.8 to 17.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 10.8 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.1 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.2 | 3.0 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 30.8 | 26.6 to 35.0 | 20.3 to 41.4 | 99% | 95% | 82% | 55% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 26.6 | 22.7 to 30.6 | 16.8 to 36.4 | 97% | 86% | 61% | 29% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 25.0 | 21.2 to 28.8 | 15.5 to 34.5 | 96% | 80% | 50% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 24.1 | 20.4 to 27.9 | 14.8 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 44% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 23.0 | 19.3 to 26.7 | 13.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.2 | 12.8 to 30.6 | 89% | 62% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.3 | 12.1 to 29.5 | 86% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.2 | 82% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.7 | 10.9 to 27.8 | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.6 | 75% | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.2 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.0 | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 12.6 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.5 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.3 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.8 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 15.9 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 8.4 | 6.1 to 10.7 | 2.7 to 14.1 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 8.3 | 6.0 to 10.5 | 2.6 to 13.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 7.7 | 5.5 to 9.9 | 2.3 to 13.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |