AFL · ROUND 10 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne
Sat 16 May 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 18
ADE to win, 74% chance
ADE 74%26% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 68
HIT Actual margin 68 · 49.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 110 | 94 to 126 | 70 to 150 | 95% | 89% | 79% | 66% | 50% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 95 | 79 to 110 | 57 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 41% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 95 | 79 to 110 | 57 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 92 | 77 to 108 | 55 to 130 | 84% | 71% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 80% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 88 | 73 to 103 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| James Peatling | R | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 82 | 67 to 97 | 46 to 118 | 70% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 10% | - |
| Josh Rachele | RR | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 117 | 68% | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 115 | 65% | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 75 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 108 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Daniel Curtin | HFFR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 103 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 91 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| James Borlase | FB | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 72 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 110 | 94 to 126 | 70 to 150 | 95% | 89% | 79% | 66% | 50% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 135 | 87% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 93 | 78 to 108 | 55 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 55% | 38% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 80% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 88 | 73 to 102 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 81 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 116 | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 84 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 50 | 37 to 63 | 18 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 48 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 47 | 34 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 41 | 29 to 53 | 11 to 71 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |