AFL · ROUND 10 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne
Sat 16 May 2026, 12:45pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 18
ADE to win, 74% chance
ADE 74%26% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 68
HIT Actual margin 68 · 49.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Berry | INT | 6.5 | 4.6 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.8 | 89% | 81% | 70% | 57% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 78% | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| James Peatling | R | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 77% | 63% | 47% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jake Soligo | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | FPL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 55% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 57% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Keays | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | RR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Josh Worrell | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordon Butts | CHB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 87% | 78% | 67% | 53% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 33% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 55% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | C | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Parker | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Dawson | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zane Duursma | FPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |