AFL · ROUND 10 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats
Thu 14 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 7
BRI to win, 60% chance
BRI 60%40% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 41
MISS Actual margin 41 · 47.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.5 | 25.4 to 33.6 | 19.2 to 39.8 | 99% | 93% | 76% | 47% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.5 | 24.4 to 32.5 | 18.3 to 38.6 | 98% | 91% | 71% | 40% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 26.3 | 22.4 to 30.3 | 16.6 to 36.1 | 97% | 86% | 59% | 27% | 7% | - |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 23.2 | 19.5 to 26.9 | 14.0 to 32.4 | 93% | 72% | 38% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 22.3 | 18.7 to 26.0 | 13.3 to 31.4 | 91% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 22.2 | 18.5 to 25.8 | 13.2 to 31.1 | 90% | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.7 | 18.2 to 25.3 | 12.8 to 30.7 | 89% | 62% | 28% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.6 | 11.5 to 28.7 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.0 | 11.1 to 28.1 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 17.9 | 14.6 to 21.2 | 9.8 to 26.0 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 16.8 | 13.6 to 20.0 | 8.9 to 24.7 | 65% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 15.3 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.7 to 22.8 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Marshall | INT | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.5 | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.4 to 18.9 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | INT | 11.3 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.7 to 17.8 | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 10.9 | 8.4 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Cody Curtin | CHF | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 2.9 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 31.0 | 26.7 to 35.2 | 20.4 to 41.5 | 99% | 96% | 82% | 56% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 34.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 29.6 | 25.5 to 33.8 | 19.3 to 40.0 | 99% | 94% | 77% | 48% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 24.0 | 20.3 to 27.8 | 14.7 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 43% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 22.1 | 18.5 to 25.7 | 13.1 to 31.0 | 90% | 65% | 30% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.1 to 29.6 | 86% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.8 to 27.5 | 79% | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 18.9 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.5 to 27.2 | 78% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 17.9 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 9.8 to 26.1 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 71% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.1 to 23.4 | 57% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 48% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 46% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 14.1 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 12.8 | 10.1 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 10.4 | 7.9 to 12.9 | 4.1 to 16.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.2 | 3.0 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |