AFL · ROUND 10 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats
Thu 14 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 7
BRI to win, 60% chance
BRI 60%40% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 41
MISS Actual margin 41 · 47.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 145 | 93% | 86% | 75% | 60% | 43% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 102 | 86 to 118 | 63 to 141 | 91% | 82% | 69% | 53% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 101 | 85 to 117 | 62 to 140 | 90% | 81% | 68% | 52% | 35% | - |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 94 | 79 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 93 | 77 to 108 | 55 to 130 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 38% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 91 | 76 to 106 | 53 to 129 | 82% | 68% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 126 | 79% | 64% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 117 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 71 | 57 to 86 | 36 to 106 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Sam Marshall | INT | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Darcy Gardiner | INT | 51 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Cody Curtin | CHF | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 112 | 96 to 128 | 72 to 152 | 96% | 90% | 82% | 69% | 53% | outside our 90% range: 157 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 108 | 92 to 124 | 68 to 148 | 94% | 88% | 78% | 63% | 47% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 44% | 28% | outside our 90% range: 54 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 120 | 72% | 55% | 38% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 83 | 68 to 98 | 46 to 119 | 72% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 72 | 57 to 86 | 36 to 106 | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 53% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 129 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 61 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 60 | 46 to 73 | 26 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 84 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 84 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15 |