AFL · ROUND 10 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats
Thu 14 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 7
BRI to win, 60% chance
BRI 60%40% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 41
MISS Actual margin 41 · 47.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | FPR | 2.0 | 1.3 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 76% | 51% | 26% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 69% | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 67% | 36% | 13% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 64% | 32% | 10% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 59% | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cody Curtin | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Harris Andrews | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Marshall | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.6 to 3.3 | 0.2 to 4.7 | 82% | 61% | 36% | 16% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 67% | 37% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 46% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |