AFL · ROUND 10 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats
Thu 14 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 7
BRI to win, 60% chance
BRI 60%40% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 41
MISS Actual margin 41 · 47.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 8.1 | 5.9 to 10.3 | 3.1 to 13.1 | 90% | 84% | 74% | 63% | 51% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 7.5 | 5.3 to 9.6 | 2.7 to 12.3 | 87% | 79% | 69% | 56% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 2.5 to 11.9 | 86% | 77% | 66% | 53% | 40% | - |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.2 to 11.4 | 83% | 73% | 61% | 48% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.2 to 11.4 | 83% | 73% | 61% | 47% | 34% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 6.7 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.1 to 11.2 | 82% | 72% | 59% | 45% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 48% | 34% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 33% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 67% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 67% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Marshall | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cody Curtin | CHF | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.1 to 11.2 | 82% | 72% | 59% | 45% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 79% | 67% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 49% | 34% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 74% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.3 to 9.4 | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tom Atkins | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |