AFL · ROUND 10 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats
Thu 14 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 7
BRI to win, 60% chance
BRI 60%40% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 41
MISS Actual margin 41 · 47.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.7 | 89% | 80% | 69% | 56% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 65% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 55% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 45% | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zac Bailey | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Sam Marshall | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | WR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cody Curtin | CHF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | INT | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Morris | FPR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | INT | 6.9 | 4.9 to 8.9 | 2.5 to 11.3 | 91% | 84% | 74% | 62% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 68% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | WL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 53% | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 51% | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Holmes | RR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Martin | FPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | CHB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam De Koning | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Henry | HBFR | 0.9 | 0.1 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |