AFL · ROUND 10 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Sat 16 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 12
WB to win, 66% chance
CAR 34%66% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 23.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 27.5 | 23.5 to 31.5 | 17.5 to 37.5 | 98% | 89% | 66% | 34% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 25.1 | 21.3 to 28.9 | 15.6 to 34.7 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 20% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 23.4 | 19.7 to 27.1 | 14.1 to 32.6 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Adam Cerra | RR | 23.0 | 19.4 to 26.7 | 13.9 to 32.2 | 92% | 71% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 23.0 | 19.4 to 26.7 | 13.9 to 32.2 | 92% | 71% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 21.3 | 17.8 to 24.9 | 12.5 to 30.2 | 88% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jagga Smith | INT | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.5 to 27.2 | 78% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 9.8 to 26.1 | 72% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Zac Williams | WR | 17.7 | 14.4 to 20.9 | 9.6 to 25.8 | 71% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.8 | 9.6 to 25.7 | 70% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WL | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 14.7 | 11.8 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 48% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 14.6 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.3 to 22.0 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 12.6 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.5 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 11.8 | 9.2 to 14.5 | 5.2 to 18.5 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.7 | 9.1 to 14.4 | 5.1 to 18.4 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jack Ison | HFFR | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.5 | 3.9 to 16.2 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 27.5 | 23.5 to 31.5 | 17.5 to 37.5 | 98% | 89% | 66% | 34% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 25.8 | 21.9 to 29.6 | 16.1 to 35.4 | 96% | 83% | 55% | 24% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 25.4 | 21.5 to 29.3 | 15.8 to 35.0 | 96% | 82% | 53% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 25.0 | 21.2 to 28.8 | 15.5 to 34.5 | 96% | 80% | 50% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 24.0 | 20.3 to 27.8 | 14.7 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 43% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 18.0 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 9.9 to 26.2 | 73% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 17.5 | 14.3 to 20.7 | 9.5 to 25.5 | 70% | 31% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WL | 16.7 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.6 | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 13.6 | 10.8 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 38% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | BPL | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 5.0 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 10.6 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.9 to 16.3 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Louis Emmett | RK | 8.4 | 6.1 to 10.7 | 2.7 to 14.0 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 8.4 | 6.1 to 10.7 | 2.7 to 14.1 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |