AFL · ROUND 10 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Sat 16 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 12
WB to win, 66% chance
CAR 34%66% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 23.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 99 | 84 to 115 | 61 to 138 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 96 | 81 to 112 | 58 to 134 | 87% | 76% | 60% | 44% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| George Hewett | INT | 88 | 74 to 104 | 51 to 126 | 79% | 65% | 47% | 31% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Adam Cerra | RR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 78% | 63% | 45% | 29% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 127 |
| Zac Williams | WR | 75 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Jagga Smith | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Matthew Carroll | WL | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Jack Ison | HFFR | 66 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 58 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 84 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 48 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 43 | 31 to 56 | 13 to 74 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 98 | 82 to 114 | 60 to 136 | 88% | 78% | 63% | 47% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Ed Richards | R | 96 | 80 to 111 | 58 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 43% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 95 | 80 to 110 | 57 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 41% | 26% | outside our 90% range: 53 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 54 to 129 | 82% | 69% | 52% | 35% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jedd Busslinger | BPL | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Louis Emmett | RK | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 49 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 44 | 31 to 56 | 13 to 74 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |