AFL · ROUND 10 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Sat 16 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 12
WB to win, 66% chance
CAR 34%66% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 23.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 67% | 37% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 62% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ison | HFFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Williams | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Cerra | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 74% | 47% | 22% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Louis Emmett | RK | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |