AFL · ROUND 10 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Sat 16 May 2026, 7:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 12
WB to win, 66% chance
CAR 34%66% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 12
MISS Actual margin 12 · 23.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 6.9 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.3 to 11.5 | 84% | 74% | 62% | 48% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Nick Haynes | BPR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 2.0 to 11.0 | 81% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 36% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPL | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 29% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 70% | 55% | 39% | 25% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | WL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Adam Cerra | RR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zac Williams | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jagga Smith | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Francis Evans | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ison | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Williams | WR | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.7 to 10.2 | 76% | 64% | 49% | 35% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.1 | 76% | 63% | 48% | 34% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHB | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 70% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | BPL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 61% | 45% | 29% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Joel Freijah | FPL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | WL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Will Lewis | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan McNeil | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Louis Emmett | RK | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |