AFL · ROUND 10 · MCG
Essendon v Fremantle
Sun 17 May 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 27
FRE to win, 82% chance
ESS 18%82% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 43
HIT Actual margin 43 · 16.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Parish | C | 27.4 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | -0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 96 / inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 27.1 / inside our 50% range: 30.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 102 / inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 26.9 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 102 / inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 22.7 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 94 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 21.9 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 82 / outside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 21.4 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 89 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 20.0 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Sam Durham | R | 19.8 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 16.9 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.4 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.3 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 16.1 / - | 0.0 / - | 3.4 / - | 2.3 / - | 64 / - |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 15.3 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 14.2 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 14.2 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 84 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 12.8 / outside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 12.5 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 12.3 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 12.0 / - | 0.9 / - | 3.2 / - | 2.1 / - | 56 / - |
| Ben McKay | INT | 11.0 / - | -0.0 / - | 5.2 / - | 1.0 / - | 46 / - |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 11.0 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 9.8 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 9.0 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 47 / outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Archer May | FPL | 7.1 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 23 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 24.7 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 23.6 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 6.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 89 / inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 22.7 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 22.2 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.1 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 79 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 20.3 / outside our 90% range: 30.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 72 / inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 17.6 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 17.3 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 95 / inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 16.7 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 16.5 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.3 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Karl Worner | BPL | 14.9 / outside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 14.8 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Bailey Banfield | INT | 13.4 / - | 0.9 / - | 3.0 / - | 2.0 / - | 56 / - |
| Jeremy Sharp | INT | 12.7 / - | 0.0 / - | 3.3 / - | 1.6 / - | 50 / - |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 51 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Josh Treacy | CHF | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Isaiah Dudley | FPR | 11.2 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 11.1 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 10.9 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Oscar McDonald | INT | 9.8 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 40 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 9.5 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 9.4 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 50 / outside our 90% range: 85 |
| Hugh Davies | INT | 8.6 / - | -0.0 / - | 2.9 / - | 1.3 / - | 36 / - |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.1 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 48 |