AFL · ROUND 10 · MCG
Essendon v Fremantle
Sun 17 May 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 27
FRE to win, 82% chance
ESS 18%82% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 43
HIT Actual margin 43 · 16.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Parish | C | 27.4 | 23.4 to 31.4 | 17.4 to 37.4 | 98% | 89% | 65% | 34% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 27.1 | 23.1 to 31.1 | 17.2 to 37.0 | 98% | 88% | 63% | 32% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 26.9 | 22.9 to 30.8 | 17.0 to 36.7 | 98% | 87% | 62% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 22.7 | 19.1 to 26.4 | 13.6 to 31.8 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 21.9 | 18.3 to 25.4 | 12.9 to 30.8 | 90% | 63% | 28% | 7% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 21.4 | 17.9 to 25.0 | 12.6 to 30.3 | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.6 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Sam Durham | R | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.3 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.0 | 9.0 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.5 to 24.0 | 60% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.8 | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 12.8 | 10.1 to 15.6 | 5.9 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 12.5 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.4 to 18.9 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.7 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ben McKay | INT | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 4.4 to 17.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 16.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Archer May | FPL | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 1.9 to 12.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 24.7 | 20.9 to 28.5 | 15.2 to 34.2 | 95% | 79% | 48% | 18% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 23.6 | 19.9 to 27.3 | 14.3 to 32.9 | 94% | 74% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 22.7 | 19.1 to 26.4 | 13.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 22.2 | 18.6 to 25.8 | 13.2 to 31.2 | 90% | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.6 | 12.3 to 29.9 | 87% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 20.3 | 16.8 to 23.7 | 11.7 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 17.6 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.5 to 25.6 | 70% | 31% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.3 to 25.3 | 68% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 16.7 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.6 | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.3 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.5 to 24.0 | 60% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Karl Worner | BPL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 14.8 | 11.9 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Bailey Banfield | INT | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jeremy Sharp | INT | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.0 to 18.3 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Treacy | CHF | 11.3 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | FPR | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.7 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.7 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | INT | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.2 | 3.7 to 15.8 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Hugh Davies | INT | 8.6 | 6.3 to 10.9 | 2.8 to 14.3 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.2 | 1.8 to 12.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |