AFL · ROUND 10 · MCG
Essendon v Fremantle
Sun 17 May 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 27
FRE to win, 82% chance
ESS 18%82% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 43
HIT Actual margin 43 · 16.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 102 | 87 to 118 | 63 to 141 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 102 | 86 to 117 | 63 to 141 | 91% | 82% | 69% | 53% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 96 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 75% | 60% | 42% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 94 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 89 | 74 to 104 | 51 to 126 | 80% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 45 |
| Sam Durham | R | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 116 | 68% | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 67 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 58 | 45 to 72 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Zach Reid | FB | 56 | 42 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 52 | 40 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Archer May | FPL | 46 | 34 to 59 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Ben McKay | INT | 46 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 95 | 80 to 111 | 57 to 134 | 86% | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 126 | 80% | 65% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 88 | 73 to 103 | 50 to 125 | 78% | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 116 | 68% | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 72 | 58 to 87 | 37 to 108 | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Josh Treacy | CHF | 64 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 98 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Karl Worner | BPL | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Bailey Banfield | INT | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 87 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Isaiah Dudley | FPR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Jeremy Sharp | INT | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 50 | 37 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 85 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 50 | 37 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 46 | 34 to 59 | 15 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Oscar McDonald | INT | 40 | 28 to 52 | 10 to 70 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Hugh Davies | INT | 36 | 24 to 48 | 7 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |