AFL · ROUND 10 · MCG
Essendon v Fremantle
Sun 17 May 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 27
FRE to win, 82% chance
ESS 18%82% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 43
HIT Actual margin 43 · 16.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 75% | 62% | 47% | 33% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 73% | 60% | 44% | 30% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.7 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ben McKay | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 14% | - |
| Jacob Farrow | HBFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 44% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Parish | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Peter Wright | RK | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | WR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elijah Tsatas | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Durham | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Archer May | FPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archie Perkins | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 29% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 49% | 35% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Treacy | CHF | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 44% | 28% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Karl Worner | BPL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jeremy Sharp | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bailey Banfield | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Michael Frederick | WL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugh Davies | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | FPR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |