AFL · ROUND 10 · TIO STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Port Adelaide
Fri 15 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 23
GCS to win, 79% chance
GCS 79%21% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 2.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 28.7 | 24.6 to 32.8 | 18.5 to 38.9 | 99% | 92% | 72% | 42% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Matt Rowell | CHF | 27.0 | 23.0 to 30.9 | 17.1 to 36.9 | 98% | 88% | 63% | 31% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 26.3 | 22.4 to 30.2 | 16.5 to 36.0 | 97% | 85% | 58% | 27% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 25.4 | 21.6 to 29.3 | 15.8 to 35.0 | 96% | 82% | 53% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.0 | 15.6 to 34.7 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 20% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.2 | 12.8 to 30.6 | 89% | 62% | 27% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 20.6 | 17.2 to 24.1 | 11.9 to 29.4 | 86% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 20.5 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 11.8 to 29.1 | 85% | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.6 | 75% | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 17.8 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 72% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 17.7 | 14.4 to 20.9 | 9.6 to 25.7 | 70% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.3 | 7.1 to 21.7 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 13.5 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.5 to 19.2 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 18.9 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.2 to 18.5 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 4.4 to 17.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.7 | 4.0 to 16.4 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jed Walter | HFFR | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.1 | 1.8 to 12.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 30.2 | 26.0 to 34.4 | 19.8 to 40.6 | 99% | 94% | 79% | 51% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 24.3 | 20.5 to 28.1 | 14.9 to 33.7 | 95% | 77% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 23.0 | 19.4 to 26.7 | 13.9 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.6 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 19.6 | 16.2 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.1 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.6 | 79% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 18.0 | 14.8 to 21.3 | 9.9 to 26.2 | 73% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 15.9 | 12.8 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.5 | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 7.9 to 23.1 | 54% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 48% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.3 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.7 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 11.8 | 9.2 to 14.5 | 5.2 to 18.5 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lachie Jones | BPR | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.4 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.9 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.8 | 2.8 to 14.3 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |