AFL · ROUND 10 · TIO STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Port Adelaide
Fri 15 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 23
GCS to win, 79% chance
GCS 79%21% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 2.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 99 | 84 to 115 | 60 to 138 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 118 |
| Matt Rowell | CHF | 98 | 82 to 113 | 59 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 95 | 79 to 110 | 57 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 41% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| John Noble | INT | 94 | 78 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 72% | 56% | 39% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 60% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Ben King | FF | 54 | 41 to 67 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Jed Walter | HFFR | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 74 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 65 to 143 | 92% | 84% | 72% | 57% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 122 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 94 | 79 to 109 | 56 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 40% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Willem Drew | R | 81 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 117 | 69% | 51% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 54 | 41 to 67 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 51 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 48 | 35 to 60 | 17 to 79 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 46 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Lachie Jones | BPR | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 75 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |