AFL · ROUND 10 · TIO STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Port Adelaide
Fri 15 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 23
GCS to win, 79% chance
GCS 79%21% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 2.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.2 to 11.3 | 83% | 72% | 60% | 46% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 52% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 69% | 54% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 67% | 52% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.4 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 36% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jed Walter | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Matt Rowell | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.1 to 11.1 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 45% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.4 | 70% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Jones | BPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 36% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |