AFL · ROUND 10 · TIO STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Port Adelaide
Fri 15 May 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 23
GCS to win, 79% chance
GCS 79%21% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 25
HIT Actual margin 25 · 2.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | CHF | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 87% | 78% | 67% | 53% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Touk Miller | WR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.8 to 7.6 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Holman | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 59% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Petracca | C | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| John Noble | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | FPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mac Andrew | BPR | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jed Walter | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Adams | BPL | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 0.7 | 0.1 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.6 | 1.8 to 9.8 | 85% | 75% | 62% | 47% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.3 | 76% | 62% | 45% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 73% | 58% | 42% | 26% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.3 | 56% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 53% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Christian Moraes | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 39% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Jones | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |