AFL · ROUND 10 · MCG
Melbourne v Hawthorn
Sat 16 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 3
HAW to win, 54% chance
MEL 46%54% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 39
MISS Actual margin 39 · 41.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 25.2 | 21.4 to 29.1 | 15.6 to 34.8 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFR | 25.1 | 21.3 to 29.0 | 15.6 to 34.7 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 20% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.3 | 14.3 to 32.8 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 21.9 | 18.3 to 25.5 | 12.9 to 30.8 | 90% | 63% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFL | 21.3 | 17.8 to 24.9 | 12.5 to 30.2 | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.2 | 12.0 to 29.4 | 86% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 19.9 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | INT | 19.9 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 71% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Kade Chandler | R | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.2 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 62% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 50% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.6 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.6 | 23% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HBFR | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Max Heath | CHF | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.5 | 3.9 to 16.2 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 25.9 | 22.0 to 29.8 | 16.2 to 35.6 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 22.3 | 18.7 to 25.9 | 13.3 to 31.3 | 91% | 66% | 31% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 21.6 | 18.0 to 25.1 | 12.7 to 30.4 | 89% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 21.1 | 17.5 to 24.6 | 12.3 to 29.8 | 87% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.9 | 11.1 to 28.0 | 81% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.8 | 11.0 to 27.8 | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 19.2 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.6 | 80% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.5 | 10.7 to 27.5 | 79% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.6 to 27.3 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 18.6 | 15.2 to 21.9 | 10.3 to 26.8 | 76% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Henry Hustwaite | C | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 10.0 to 26.4 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.3 to 25.3 | 68% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.2 to 25.1 | 67% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 9.0 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 14.5 | 11.6 to 17.4 | 7.2 to 21.8 | 46% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 12.6 | 9.9 to 15.4 | 5.8 to 19.5 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.3 | 8.7 to 13.9 | 4.8 to 17.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Calsher Dear | CHF | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.1 | 3.0 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Max Ramsden | HFFR | 7.5 | 5.3 to 9.7 | 2.1 to 12.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |