AFL · ROUND 10 · MCG
Melbourne v Hawthorn
Sat 16 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 3
HAW to win, 54% chance
MEL 46%54% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 39
MISS Actual margin 39 · 41.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 103 | 87 to 119 | 64 to 142 | 92% | 83% | 70% | 55% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 61 to 139 | 90% | 80% | 67% | 50% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 96 | 80 to 111 | 58 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 43% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 84 | 70 to 99 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 58% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Tom Sparrow | INT | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Kade Chandler | R | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 67 | 53 to 81 | 33 to 101 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 66 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 57 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Max Heath | CHF | 57 | 44 to 70 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 56 | 42 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 52 | 40 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HBFR | 51 | 38 to 64 | 19 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 92 | 77 to 108 | 55 to 130 | 84% | 71% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 82 | 67 to 97 | 46 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 79 | 65 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 77 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 113 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 76 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 76 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 120 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 76 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 75 | 61 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 75 | 60 to 89 | 39 to 110 | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Henry Hustwaite | C | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 104 | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 61 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 52 | 40 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Calsher Dear | CHF | 45 | 33 to 58 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Max Ramsden | HFFR | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 74 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |