AFL · ROUND 10 · MCG
Melbourne v Hawthorn
Sat 16 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 3
HAW to win, 54% chance
MEL 46%54% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 39
MISS Actual margin 39 · 41.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 70% | 42% | 17% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 35% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 61% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kade Chandler | R | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HBFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Heath | CHF | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Watson | FPR | 1.5 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 36% | 12% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 62% | 31% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Calsher Dear | CHF | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Ramsden | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Henry Hustwaite | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |