AFL · ROUND 10 · MCG
Melbourne v Hawthorn
Sat 16 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 3
HAW to win, 54% chance
MEL 46%54% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 39
MISS Actual margin 39 · 41.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lever | FB | 7.0 | 5.0 to 9.1 | 2.4 to 11.7 | 85% | 75% | 64% | 50% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 67% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HBFR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kade Chandler | R | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Heath | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 29% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sicily | BPL | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 74% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.8 | 73% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 41% | 25% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Henry Hustwaite | C | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Calsher Dear | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Max Ramsden | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |