AFL · ROUND 10 · MCG
Melbourne v Hawthorn
Sat 16 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 3
HAW to win, 54% chance
MEL 46%54% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 39
MISS Actual margin 39 · 41.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 25.2 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 6.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 96 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFR | 25.1 / outside our 90% range: 13.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 100 / inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 23.5 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 21.9 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 103 / inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFL | 21.3 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 83 / inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 20.7 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 19.9 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Tom Sparrow | INT | 19.9 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 17.8 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Kade Chandler | R | 16.5 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 16.4 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 15.1 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.0 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 15.0 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.1 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 14.9 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 13.9 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 13.9 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 12.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 58 / outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 12.1 / outside our 90% range: 19.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 11.9 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.6 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 11.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HBFR | 11.0 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.6 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Max Heath | CHF | 10.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 25.9 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 22.3 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 21.6 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 21.1 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 19.5 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 19.4 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 19.2 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.1 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 19.1 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 19.0 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 18.6 / outside our 90% range: 27.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 76 / outside our 90% range: 120 |
| Henry Hustwaite | C | 18.2 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 17.3 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 16.9 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 14.5 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 13.4 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 12.6 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 12.6 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 9.2 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Calsher Dear | CHF | 8.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Max Ramsden | HFFR | 7.5 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 43 |