AFL · ROUND 10 · MCG
Melbourne v Hawthorn
Sat 16 May 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 3
HAW to win, 54% chance
MEL 46%54% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 39
MISS Actual margin 39 · 41.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 2.0 to 10.3 | 87% | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 78% | 64% | 48% | 33% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.8 to 7.6 | 70% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kade Chandler | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Heath | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Langford | C | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paddy Cross | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel Turner | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.1 to 8.2 | 75% | 61% | 44% | 29% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 55% | 38% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Henry Hustwaite | C | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 41% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 39% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Finn Maginness | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Calsher Dear | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Weddle | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Karl Amon | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Ramsden | HFFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bodie Ryan | HBFR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |