AFL · ROUND 10 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Richmond
Sun 17 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 36
STK to win, 89% chance
STK 89%11% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 36
HIT Actual margin 36 · 0.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 27.9 | 23.9 to 32.0 | 17.9 to 38.0 | 98% | 90% | 68% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 24.1 | 20.4 to 27.9 | 14.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 44% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 24.0 | 20.2 to 27.7 | 14.6 to 33.3 | 94% | 76% | 43% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 22.0 | 18.4 to 25.6 | 13.0 to 30.9 | 90% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 21.6 | 18.0 to 25.2 | 12.7 to 30.5 | 89% | 62% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 20.8 | 17.3 to 24.3 | 12.1 to 29.6 | 86% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 20.1 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.6 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 19.2 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 10.8 to 27.6 | 79% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.3 | 9.8 to 26.1 | 73% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 71% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | FPL | 17.8 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.7 to 25.9 | 72% | 33% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 9.0 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 50% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.2 to 21.8 | 46% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 4.9 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mitch Owens | INT | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.8 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFR | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.1 | 4.2 to 16.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFR | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.9 to 16.3 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 8.5 | 6.2 to 10.8 | 2.8 to 14.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 25.9 | 22.0 to 29.8 | 16.2 to 35.6 | 97% | 84% | 56% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 24.9 | 21.1 to 28.7 | 15.4 to 34.4 | 96% | 80% | 50% | 19% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 24.0 | 20.3 to 27.8 | 14.7 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 43% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 23.2 | 19.6 to 26.9 | 14.0 to 32.5 | 93% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 10.0 to 26.4 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 10.0 to 26.3 | 73% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 16.8 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 8.9 to 24.7 | 64% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFL | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Kaleb Smith | INT | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Noah Balta | RK | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.0 | 6.2 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 12.7 | 10.0 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.6 | 3.9 to 16.3 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 9.9 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 15.9 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Campbell Gray | BPR | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.3 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 8.3 | 6.1 to 10.6 | 2.7 to 14.0 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 8.1 | 5.9 to 10.3 | 2.5 to 13.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 7.9 | 5.7 to 10.1 | 2.4 to 13.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Liam Fawcett | FPR | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.4 | 1.9 to 12.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |