AFL · ROUND 10 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Richmond
Sun 17 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 36
STK to win, 89% chance
STK 89%11% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 36
HIT Actual margin 36 · 0.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 103 | 88 to 119 | 64 to 142 | 92% | 84% | 71% | 55% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 115 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 90 | 75 to 106 | 53 to 128 | 81% | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 125 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 77% | 62% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 44 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 116 | 68% | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Max Hall | C | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 114 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 108 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 53% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Ryan Byrnes | FPL | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 66 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 100 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 101 |
| Mitch Owens | INT | 62 | 49 to 76 | 28 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Jack Higgins | HFFR | 61 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFR | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 81 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 74 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 88 | 73 to 104 | 51 to 126 | 79% | 64% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 86 | 71 to 100 | 49 to 122 | 76% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 85 | 70 to 99 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 65 | 51 to 78 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | INT | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 62 | 48 to 75 | 28 to 95 | 34% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFL | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| James Trezise | WR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 108 |
| Kaleb Smith | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 87 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 121 |
| Campbell Gray | BPR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 49 | 36 to 62 | 18 to 80 | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPR | 39 | 27 to 51 | 10 to 69 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |