AFL · ROUND 10 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Richmond
Sun 17 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 36
STK to win, 89% chance
STK 89%11% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 36
HIT Actual margin 36 · 0.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Higgins | HFFR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 70% | 41% | 16% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | INT | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 65% | 34% | 11% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 62% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 34% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | FPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Lynch | FF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 70% | 42% | 17% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Campbell Gray | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kaleb Smith | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tim Taranto | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |