AFL · ROUND 10 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Richmond
Sun 17 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 36
STK to win, 89% chance
STK 89%11% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 36
HIT Actual margin 36 · 0.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.1 to 11.1 | 82% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 79% | 67% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.8 to 10.4 | 78% | 66% | 51% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 69% | 55% | 39% | 25% | 14% | - |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 69% | 54% | 38% | 24% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 69% | 54% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | FPL | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 67% | 52% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 64% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 0.9 to 8.4 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.4 to 7.2 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch Owens | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | CHB | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.0 to 10.9 | 80% | 69% | 56% | 42% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 47% | 33% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 71% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.2 to 9.1 | 68% | 52% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 44% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kaleb Smith | INT | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | - |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 6.9 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Campbell Gray | BPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |