AFL · ROUND 10 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Richmond
Sun 17 May 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 36
STK to win, 89% chance
STK 89%11% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 36
HIT Actual margin 36 · 0.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 81% | 69% | 54% | 39% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 80% | 67% | 52% | 36% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 55% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 52% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 45% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Carroll | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Angus Hastie | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ross | RR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 77% | 63% | 47% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 73% | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 31% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 47% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Seth Campbell | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Hayes-Brown | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Steely Green | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Grlj | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| James Trezise | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Samson Ryan | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Campbell Gray | BPR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kaleb Smith | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tyler Sonsie | HFFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Noah Roberts-Thomson | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Burton | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Fawcett | FPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Balta | RK | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |