AFL · ROUND 10 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Collingwood
Fri 15 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 21
SYD to win, 77% chance
SYD 77%23% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 15.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 25.1 | 21.3 to 28.9 | 15.5 to 34.6 | 96% | 81% | 51% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 24.2 | 20.5 to 28.0 | 14.8 to 33.6 | 95% | 77% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 22.6 | 19.0 to 26.2 | 13.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 22.1 | 18.5 to 25.7 | 13.1 to 31.1 | 90% | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 21.6 | 18.0 to 25.1 | 12.7 to 30.4 | 89% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.9 | 11.0 to 28.0 | 81% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.7 | 10.9 to 27.8 | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.2 to 26.7 | 75% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 62% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.4 to 23.9 | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| James Rowbottom | WR | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.0 to 23.2 | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPR | 14.8 | 11.9 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.3 | 5.7 to 19.4 | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 11.3 | 8.7 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 17.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.7 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.4 | 3.2 to 15.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.4 | 3.1 to 14.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 32.1 | 27.8 to 36.5 | 21.4 to 42.9 | 100% | 97% | 86% | 63% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 27.9 | 23.9 to 32.0 | 17.9 to 38.0 | 98% | 90% | 68% | 37% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 23.9 | 20.1 to 27.6 | 14.5 to 33.2 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jack Crisp | RR | 21.9 | 18.3 to 25.5 | 13.0 to 30.9 | 90% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.4 | 11.4 to 28.5 | 83% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 17.7 | 14.5 to 20.9 | 9.6 to 25.8 | 71% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 25.0 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 16.6 | 13.4 to 19.7 | 8.7 to 24.4 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | HFFL | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.5 | 7.9 to 23.1 | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Beau McCreery | CHF | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Edward Allan | WR | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Wil Parker | HBFR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.6 | 5.2 to 18.6 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.1 | 4.9 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 11.4 | 8.8 to 14.0 | 4.8 to 18.0 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.4 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.2 to 15.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.3 | 3.1 to 14.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 8.8 | 6.5 to 11.2 | 3.0 to 14.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 8.6 | 6.3 to 10.9 | 2.9 to 14.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |