AFL · ROUND 10 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Collingwood
Fri 15 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 21
SYD to win, 77% chance
SYD 77%23% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 15.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 106 | 90 to 121 | 66 to 145 | 93% | 86% | 74% | 59% | 42% | outside our 90% range: 161 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 98 | 82 to 113 | 59 to 136 | 88% | 78% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 90 | 75 to 105 | 53 to 128 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Chad Warner | C | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 84 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 146 |
| James Rowbottom | WR | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Tom Papley | FPR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 69 | 56 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 64 | 51 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 62 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 52 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 43 | 31 to 55 | 13 to 73 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 38 | 27 to 50 | 9 to 68 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 108 | 92 to 124 | 68 to 148 | 94% | 88% | 78% | 63% | 47% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 98 | 83 to 114 | 60 to 137 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 47% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 80 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 43% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jack Crisp | RR | 86 | 71 to 101 | 49 to 123 | 76% | 61% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 43 to 115 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Ned Long | INT | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 111 | 59% | 41% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 107 | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 67 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Beau McCreery | CHF | 65 | 51 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jordan De Goey | HFFL | 63 | 50 to 77 | 29 to 97 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Edward Allan | WR | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Wil Parker | HBFR | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Charlie West | INT | 45 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 75 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 45 | 33 to 58 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| William Hayes | INT | 44 | 31 to 56 | 13 to 74 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |