AFL · ROUND 10 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Collingwood
Fri 15 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 21
SYD to win, 77% chance
SYD 77%23% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 15.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.4 | 1.6 to 3.2 | 0.2 to 4.6 | 81% | 60% | 35% | 16% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 73% | 46% | 21% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 23% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | WR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 70% | 41% | 17% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 45% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | CHF | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Edward Allan | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Parker | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |