AFL · ROUND 10 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Collingwood
Fri 15 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 21
SYD to win, 77% chance
SYD 77%23% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 15.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.1 to 11.2 | 82% | 72% | 59% | 45% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.9 to 10.7 | 79% | 67% | 54% | 39% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.9 to 10.7 | 79% | 68% | 54% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.4 | 70% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.0 | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Rowbottom | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 2.0 to 10.9 | 81% | 70% | 57% | 42% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 79% | 67% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 49% | 34% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.6 to 10.0 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 32% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 60% | 45% | 31% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Crisp | RR | 5.5 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.4 to 9.6 | 71% | 57% | 42% | 28% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.7 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 54% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.8 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Beau McCreery | CHF | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Wil Parker | HBFR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Edward Allan | WR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |