AFL · ROUND 10 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Collingwood
Fri 15 May 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 21
SYD to win, 77% chance
SYD 77%23% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 6
HIT Actual margin 6 · 15.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rowbottom | WR | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.4 to 11.0 | 90% | 82% | 72% | 60% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 72% | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Chad Warner | C | 3.8 | 2.4 to 5.3 | 0.6 to 7.1 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Justin McInerney | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 43% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFR | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Cunningham | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| William Edwards | BPL | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 0.7 | 0.1 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Long | INT | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.7 | 89% | 81% | 70% | 57% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Beau McCreery | CHF | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Crisp | RR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 66% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFR | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Edward Allan | WR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | C | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dan Houston | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Wil Parker | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 25% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar Steene | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Buller | FPL | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |