AFL · ROUND 11 · MCG
Collingwood v West Coast Eagles
Sat 23 May 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 39
COL to win, 92% chance
COL 92%8% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 28.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 31.0 | 26.7 to 35.2 | 20.4 to 41.5 | 99% | 96% | 82% | 56% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 34.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 26.1 | 22.2 to 30.1 | 16.4 to 35.9 | 97% | 85% | 58% | 26% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 23.9 | 20.2 to 27.7 | 14.6 to 33.2 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 23.5 | 19.8 to 27.2 | 14.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 12% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Crisp | RR | 23.0 | 19.3 to 26.7 | 13.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 19.4 | 16.0 to 22.8 | 10.9 to 27.8 | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 19.3 | 16.0 to 22.7 | 10.9 to 27.8 | 80% | 45% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.5 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 17.7 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.6 to 25.8 | 71% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.4 | 56% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.4 | 57% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 15.4 | 12.4 to 18.4 | 7.8 to 23.0 | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 49% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 14.3 | 11.4 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.5 to 20.7 | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 12.4 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.2 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 11.5 | 8.9 to 14.2 | 4.9 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Moore | BPR | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.1 | 3.6 to 15.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| William Hayes | CHF | 9.5 | 7.1 to 11.9 | 3.5 to 15.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.6 | 3.3 to 15.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 8.7 | 6.4 to 11.0 | 2.9 to 14.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 24.2 | 20.4 to 27.9 | 14.8 to 33.6 | 94% | 77% | 44% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 24.1 | 20.4 to 27.9 | 14.8 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 44% | 15% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 23.4 | 19.7 to 27.1 | 14.2 to 32.6 | 93% | 73% | 39% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.9 | 11.8 to 29.1 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 20.4 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 11.8 to 29.1 | 85% | 53% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 20.3 | 16.8 to 23.8 | 11.7 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 19% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.5 to 27.1 | 77% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 17.9 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.7 to 26.0 | 72% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.3 to 25.3 | 68% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.2 to 25.1 | 67% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.1 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Hamish Davis | WL | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 43% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 38% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.1 to 20.1 | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | HFFR | 12.0 | 9.3 to 14.7 | 5.3 to 18.8 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | INT | 11.2 | 8.6 to 13.8 | 4.7 to 17.8 | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 9.8 | 7.4 to 12.3 | 3.7 to 16.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 9.6 | 7.2 to 12.0 | 3.5 to 15.7 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 9.4 | 7.0 to 11.8 | 3.4 to 15.4 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |