AFL · ROUND 11 · MCG
Collingwood v West Coast Eagles
Sat 23 May 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 39
COL to win, 92% chance
COL 92%8% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 28.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 115 | 99 to 131 | 74 to 156 | 97% | 92% | 84% | 73% | 58% | inside our 50% range: 126 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 97 | 82 to 112 | 59 to 135 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Jack Crisp | RR | 92 | 77 to 107 | 54 to 130 | 83% | 70% | 54% | 37% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 89 | 74 to 104 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 43 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 86 | 71 to 100 | 49 to 122 | 76% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 124 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 81 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Ned Long | INT | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 74 | 59 to 88 | 38 to 109 | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 112 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 69 | 55 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 66 | 52 to 80 | 32 to 100 | 43% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 64 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 63 | 50 to 77 | 30 to 97 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| William Hayes | CHF | 47 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Darcy Moore | BPR | 42 | 30 to 54 | 12 to 72 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 83 | 68 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 82 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 81 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 77 | 63 to 92 | 42 to 113 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 76 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 60% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 73 | 59 to 87 | 38 to 108 | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 72 | 58 to 86 | 37 to 108 | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 104 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 68 | 54 to 82 | 33 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 59 | 45 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Hamish Davis | WL | 56 | 43 to 70 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 52 | 39 to 65 | 20 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Harvey Johnston | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 46 | 33 to 58 | 15 to 76 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Rhett Bazzo | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 14 to 75 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 43 | 31 to 56 | 13 to 74 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |