AFL · ROUND 11 · MCG
Collingwood v West Coast Eagles
Sat 23 May 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 39
COL to win, 92% chance
COL 92%8% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 28.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 65% | 33% | 11% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 59% | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Moore | BPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | RR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Hayes | CHF | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 77% | 52% | 26% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 54% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hamish Davis | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | HFFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |