AFL · ROUND 11 · MCG
Collingwood v West Coast Eagles
Sat 23 May 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 39
COL to win, 92% chance
COL 92%8% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 28.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.0 to 10.9 | 80% | 69% | 56% | 42% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Billy Frampton | INT | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | C | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 30% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WL | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.4 | 70% | 56% | 40% | 26% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.6 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.9 to 8.5 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.3 | 59% | 42% | 27% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.6 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Moore | BPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| William Hayes | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 6.8 | 4.7 to 8.8 | 2.2 to 11.4 | 83% | 73% | 60% | 47% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.1 to 11.2 | 82% | 71% | 59% | 45% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.8 to 10.5 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 49% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ryan Maric | WR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.3 to 9.5 | 70% | 56% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.1 to 9.0 | 66% | 51% | 36% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.8 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.3 | 48% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | FB | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | HFFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bo Allan | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hamish Davis | WL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.1 to 6.4 | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Malakai Champion | FPL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPR | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |