AFL · ROUND 11 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v St Kilda
Fri 22 May 2026, 6:30pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 18
FRE to win, 76% chance
FRE 76%24% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 12.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 26.4 | 22.5 to 30.4 | 16.6 to 36.2 | 97% | 86% | 60% | 28% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 25.4 | 21.6 to 29.3 | 15.8 to 35.0 | 96% | 82% | 53% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 24.4 | 20.6 to 28.2 | 15.0 to 33.9 | 95% | 78% | 46% | 17% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 22.1 | 18.5 to 25.7 | 13.1 to 31.1 | 90% | 65% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.6 | 18.1 to 25.2 | 12.7 to 30.5 | 89% | 62% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 19.9 | 16.4 to 23.3 | 11.3 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 18.3 | 15.0 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.5 | 74% | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | R | 17.6 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.5 to 25.6 | 70% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.1 | 9.0 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 16.6 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.8 to 24.5 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.6 to 24.2 | 62% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.7 to 22.8 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 42% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Josh Treacy | CHF | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 40% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 13.3 | 10.5 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 12.3 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.8 | 5.4 to 18.9 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.0 to 18.3 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.5 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.3 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | FPR | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.2 | 4.3 to 17.0 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 8.0 | 5.8 to 10.3 | 2.5 to 13.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 27.9 | 23.9 to 31.9 | 17.8 to 38.0 | 98% | 90% | 68% | 37% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 25.5 | 21.6 to 29.4 | 15.9 to 35.1 | 96% | 82% | 53% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 25.3 | 21.5 to 29.2 | 15.7 to 34.9 | 96% | 82% | 52% | 21% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 24.6 | 20.8 to 28.4 | 15.1 to 34.0 | 95% | 78% | 47% | 18% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 23.2 | 19.5 to 26.9 | 14.0 to 32.4 | 93% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 22.9 | 19.2 to 26.6 | 13.8 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.5 | 12.2 to 29.7 | 87% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 20.7 | 17.2 to 24.2 | 12.0 to 29.4 | 86% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 20.1 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.7 | 83% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.6 | 10.1 to 26.6 | 75% | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.3 to 25.3 | 68% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.4 to 24.0 | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | FPL | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.3 to 23.7 | 58% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.8 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 13.6 | 10.8 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 38% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 13.6 | 10.8 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 38% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 6.0 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFL | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.3 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFR | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.0 | 5.5 to 19.1 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.0 to 16.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |