AFL · ROUND 11 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v St Kilda
Fri 22 May 2026, 6:30pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 18
FRE to win, 76% chance
FRE 76%24% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 12.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 104 | 88 to 120 | 65 to 143 | 92% | 84% | 72% | 57% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 91 | 76 to 107 | 54 to 129 | 82% | 69% | 52% | 35% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 88 | 73 to 103 | 51 to 125 | 79% | 64% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 50 to 124 | 78% | 63% | 45% | 29% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 83 | 69 to 98 | 47 to 120 | 73% | 56% | 38% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 76 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Josh Treacy | CHF | 75 | 61 to 89 | 40 to 110 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 116 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Neil Erasmus | R | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 102 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 63 | 49 to 76 | 29 to 96 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 61 | 47 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 60 | 47 to 74 | 27 to 94 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 56 | 43 to 69 | 24 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 54 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 47 | 35 to 60 | 16 to 78 | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Christopher Scerri | FPR | 46 | 34 to 59 | 16 to 77 | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 102 | 86 to 118 | 63 to 141 | 91% | 82% | 70% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 95 | 79 to 110 | 56 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 90 | 75 to 105 | 52 to 128 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 75% | 59% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 85 | 70 to 100 | 48 to 122 | 74% | 58% | 41% | 25% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 84 | 70 to 99 | 48 to 121 | 74% | 58% | 40% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 45 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 80 | 65 to 94 | 44 to 116 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Max Hall | C | 80 | 66 to 95 | 44 to 116 | 68% | 50% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 79 | 64 to 93 | 43 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 76 | 62 to 91 | 41 to 112 | 62% | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 105 | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 69 | 56 to 83 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 103 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 68 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Ryan Byrnes | FPL | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 60 | 46 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 60 | 47 to 73 | 27 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFR | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFL | 50 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 44 | 32 to 57 | 14 to 75 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |