AFL · ROUND 11 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v St Kilda
Fri 22 May 2026, 6:30pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 18
FRE to win, 76% chance
FRE 76%24% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 12.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Treacy | CHF | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.0 | 0.1 to 4.3 | 79% | 55% | 30% | 12% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.0 | 0.1 to 4.3 | 78% | 55% | 30% | 12% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 69% | 40% | 16% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.3 | 0.7 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 59% | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 45% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | FPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.5 | 0.9 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 35% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 44% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | FPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |