AFL · ROUND 11 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v St Kilda
Fri 22 May 2026, 6:30pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 18
FRE to win, 76% chance
FRE 76%24% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 12.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 6.9 | 4.8 to 8.9 | 2.2 to 11.5 | 84% | 74% | 62% | 48% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Josh Treacy | CHF | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.3 | 1.9 to 10.8 | 80% | 68% | 55% | 41% | 28% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.4 | 77% | 65% | 51% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 9.9 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 70% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 69% | 54% | 39% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 63% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.8 to 8.2 | 58% | 42% | 26% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.0 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.7 to 8.1 | 57% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.2 to 6.7 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.1 to 6.5 | 36% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 27% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 8.6 | 6.3 to 10.9 | 3.4 to 13.8 | 92% | 86% | 78% | 68% | 57% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.6 | 79% | 67% | 53% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.4 | 77% | 65% | 51% | 37% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 76% | 63% | 49% | 34% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 32% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | FPL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.3 | 69% | 54% | 39% | 25% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.2 to 9.2 | 68% | 53% | 37% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 1.0 to 8.7 | 63% | 48% | 32% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.6 to 7.8 | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.5 to 7.5 | 50% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |