AFL · ROUND 11 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v St Kilda
Fri 22 May 2026, 6:30pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
FRE by 18
FRE to win, 76% chance
FRE 76%24% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 12.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 26.4 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Shai Bolton | RR | 25.4 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 87 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 24.4 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 88 / inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 22.1 / inside our 90% range: 30.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.6 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 83 / inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 19.9 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 104 / inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 18.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Neil Erasmus | R | 17.6 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 16.9 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 16.6 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 16.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 15.2 / outside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 63 / inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WL | 15.1 / outside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 59 / outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Michael Frederick | INT | 14.0 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Josh Treacy | CHF | 13.9 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 6.4 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 75 / outside our 90% range: 116 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 13.3 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 54 / inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 56 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 10.9 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Christopher Scerri | FPR | 10.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 46 / inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 8.0 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 41 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 27.9 / inside our 50% range: 29.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 102 / inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 25.5 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 2.8 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 95 / inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 25.3 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 24.6 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Hugo Garcia | HFFL | 23.2 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 84 / outside our 90% range: 45 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 22.9 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.0 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 20.9 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 8.6 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 20.7 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Max Hall | C | 20.1 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.6 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Rowan Marshall | INT | 18.4 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Liam Henry | INT | 17.3 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | CHF | 16.2 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Ryan Byrnes | FPL | 16.0 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Mason Wood | HFFR | 15.2 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 15.1 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 14.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 13.6 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 13.6 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Dougal Howard | FPR | 12.9 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFL | 12.5 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Liam O'Connell | HBFR | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 10.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 40 |