AFL · ROUND 11 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Brisbane Lions
Sun 24 May 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 8
BRI to win, 63% chance
GWS 37%63% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 78
MISS Actual margin 78 · 86.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Callaghan | R | 30.1 | 25.9 to 34.3 | 19.6 to 40.5 | 99% | 94% | 79% | 50% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 29.7 | 25.5 to 33.8 | 19.3 to 40.0 | 99% | 94% | 77% | 48% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 37.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 28.2 | 24.1 to 32.2 | 18.1 to 38.3 | 98% | 91% | 70% | 38% | 14% | - |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 28.0 | 24.0 to 32.1 | 17.9 to 38.1 | 98% | 90% | 69% | 38% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Toby Greene | HFFL | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.2 | 12.7 to 30.6 | 89% | 62% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 20.1 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.5 to 28.7 | 83% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.4 | 11.4 to 28.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Brent Daniels | RR | 17.6 | 14.3 to 20.8 | 9.5 to 25.6 | 70% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.7 | 9.4 to 25.5 | 69% | 30% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 16.6 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.8 to 24.5 | 63% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.2 | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.7 to 22.8 | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | CHF | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | FPR | 13.1 | 10.3 to 15.9 | 6.1 to 20.1 | 33% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Conor Stone | WL | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.8 to 19.6 | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Stringer | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.2 | 5.6 to 19.3 | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 19.0 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Toby Bedford | FPL | 12.2 | 9.5 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 18.9 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.5 | 5.2 to 18.5 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.1 to 18.5 | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.2 | 3.7 to 15.9 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 7.8 | 5.6 to 10.0 | 2.3 to 13.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 30.5 | 26.3 to 34.7 | 20.0 to 41.0 | 99% | 95% | 80% | 53% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.0 | 24.0 to 32.1 | 18.0 to 38.1 | 98% | 90% | 69% | 38% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 23.0 | 19.4 to 26.7 | 13.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 22.0 | 18.4 to 25.5 | 13.0 to 30.9 | 90% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.2 | 12.8 to 30.6 | 89% | 62% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 16% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 19.7 | 16.2 to 23.1 | 11.2 to 28.2 | 81% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 19.4 | 16.1 to 22.8 | 11.0 to 27.9 | 80% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.6 to 27.3 | 78% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.9 | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Marshall | INT | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 50% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 14.6 | 11.7 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.8 to 21.2 | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.6 | 6.6 to 20.9 | 39% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.4 to 18.9 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.3 | 5.0 to 18.3 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.7 | 4.6 to 17.6 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.5 | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.6 | 4.5 to 17.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Will McLachlan | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.4 to 17.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.8 | 4.1 to 16.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 9.9 | 7.5 to 12.4 | 3.8 to 16.1 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |