AFL · ROUND 11 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Brisbane Lions
Sun 24 May 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 8
BRI to win, 63% chance
GWS 37%63% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 78
MISS Actual margin 78 · 86.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 104 | 88 to 120 | 65 to 143 | 92% | 84% | 72% | 57% | 40% | - |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 103 | 87 to 118 | 64 to 142 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 54% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 119 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 102 | 86 to 118 | 63 to 141 | 91% | 82% | 69% | 53% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 99 | 84 to 115 | 60 to 138 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Toby Greene | HFFL | 90 | 75 to 105 | 53 to 128 | 81% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Brent Daniels | RR | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 78 | 64 to 93 | 42 to 114 | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 78 | 64 to 92 | 42 to 114 | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 40 to 112 | 61% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 70 | 56 to 84 | 35 to 104 | 49% | 31% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Jake Riccardi | FPR | 70 | 56 to 84 | 36 to 105 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 69 | 55 to 83 | 34 to 103 | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Jake Stringer | HFFR | 68 | 54 to 81 | 33 to 102 | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 67 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | 66 | 53 to 80 | 32 to 101 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 65 | 52 to 79 | 31 to 99 | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Phoenix Gothard | CHF | 59 | 46 to 72 | 26 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 130 |
| Toby Bedford | FPL | 58 | 44 to 71 | 25 to 90 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 105 |
| Conor Stone | WL | 55 | 42 to 68 | 22 to 87 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 53 | 40 to 66 | 21 to 85 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 51 | 39 to 64 | 20 to 83 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 51 | 38 to 63 | 19 to 82 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 13 to 74 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 101 | 85 to 116 | 62 to 140 | 90% | 81% | 68% | 51% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 100 | 84 to 116 | 61 to 139 | 90% | 80% | 67% | 50% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 90 | 74 to 105 | 52 to 127 | 80% | 66% | 49% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 86 | 71 to 100 | 49 to 122 | 76% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 81 | 67 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 81 | 66 to 96 | 45 to 118 | 69% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 75 | 61 to 90 | 40 to 111 | 59% | 41% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 39 to 109 | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 71 | 57 to 85 | 36 to 106 | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 68 | 54 to 82 | 34 to 103 | 47% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 66 | 52 to 79 | 32 to 100 | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 64 | 50 to 78 | 30 to 98 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Sam Marshall | INT | 61 | 47 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Will McLachlan | INT | 61 | 48 to 74 | 28 to 94 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 58 | 45 to 71 | 25 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 24 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 56 | 43 to 69 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 55 | 42 to 68 | 23 to 88 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 54 | 41 to 67 | 22 to 86 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 48 | 36 to 61 | 17 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 45 | 33 to 57 | 14 to 76 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |