AFL · ROUND 11 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Brisbane Lions
Sun 24 May 2026, 12:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 8
BRI to win, 63% chance
GWS 37%63% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GWS by 78
MISS Actual margin 78 · 86.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 May 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 79% | 66% | 51% | 35% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | R | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 68% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brent Daniels | RR | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 63% | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Toby Bedford | FPL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.6 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Toby Greene | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 52% | 32% | 17% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | CHF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Stringer | HFFR | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Toby McMullin | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Conor Stone | WL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.6 | 2.3 to 11.0 | 90% | 82% | 72% | 59% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 62% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | WL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 59% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 48% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 44% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 43% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 25% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Marshall | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bruce Reville | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will McLachlan | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | BPR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 0.9 | 0.2 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |